Too Little Too Late

This is something I originally wrote as a blog for HRF, but was used in a much different form, so here's the original. Written on August 4th 2011.

Too Little Too Late – United Nations Finally says something on Syria

This week the United Nations Security Council issued a Presidential Statement (available here) on the situation in Syria. This statement, which given the parliamentary rules in the council is weaker than a resolution, comes only after over six months of continuous brutal crackdown and most recently outright assault from the Assad regime towards unarmed civilians. The statement is not attached to any sort of further action of any kind, such as intervention or sanctions, and simply expresses the council’s “concern”.

Albeit weak and late, the statement represents a significant diplomatic development which will further isolate the Assad regime. Notably, a Presidential Statement from the UN Security Council requires unanimity from the 15 members. This means that Russia and China finally agreed to make a statement which is an encouraging step. The recent signs coming out of Russia also seem to imply a slow policy shift on Syria, which could in turn convince China.  At least Russia is now acknowledging that the Assad regime needs to do something, although Russia seems to still think Assad will reconcile while he’s sending tanks to massacre civilians.

More action is immediately needed. In no uncertain terms, Assad is killing his own people by the hundreds. Artillery has been used on populated urban areas, refugees by the thousands are fleeing and destabilizing the region and there is no end in sight. All promises for reform and dialogue have been broken or ignored. Should this continue, and by all indications so far it will, strong multilateral action is necessary. The UNSC must pass a resolution stronger than the “watered down” presidential statement. The United States and European Union should also be vigorously engaging regional powers, especially Turkey, to take a strong stand against the violence and Assad. Turkey’s response to Assad’s most recent assault was its strongest yet and like Russia, might be increasingly convinced the Assad’s action make him illegitimate as a ruler and is destabilizing the region.

Further than a UNSC resolution, more sanctions could come from the United States and European Union, specifically targeting the Syrian energy sector. Several European nations continue to buy oil from Syria and the revenue from oil sales makes up a considerable chunk of the regime’s income. Travel bans and account freezes on regime officials and major supporters in Syria could also force a stop to violence. In terms of accountability for the crimes already committed, the UN should immediately open an investigation on the violence in Syria, and pending the results recommend the International Criminal Court take action.

While more measures are possible and necessary the Obama administration is right for treating Syria with the utmost caution. The US policy options in Syria remain limited. No military option has been – or should be – pushed for and the United States did not have much leverage over Syria before the crackdown. Also, despite the need for tougher measures, Ambassador Ford must not be pulled from Syria. Having an ambassador on the ground means a more direct link to activists and news on the ground. Despite Assad’s warning, Ford should be traveling in Syria and playing witness to the atrocities. US leverage and credibility in Syria is limited but if Ford’s reception in Hama last time is any indication, the Syrian people appreciate knowing that the world is watching.